As the calendar turns towards the heartwarming Thanksgiving season, movie theaters anticipate one of the most lucrative holidays since the onset of the pandemic. This year, a lineup boasting a beloved Polynesian princess, a spellbinding duo of witches, and a vengeance-driven gladiator is propelling expectations sky-high. Disney’s highly anticipated “Moana 2” is set to release on Wednesday, with projections suggesting it could amass between $120 million and $150 million over the extended weekend, an impressive feat for the domestic box office.
“Moana 2” is not entering the holiday landscape unaccompanied. It will be sharing the spotlight with Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” both of which are enjoying their second weeks in theaters. Industry experts predict that this trifecta of titles will surge the five-day Thanksgiving total past the $200 million mark, potentially marking it as one of the top Thanksgiving weekends in cinematic history. According to Shawn Robbins, an analyst from Fandango, this combination is a “perfect storm,” showcasing a rare opportunity for theaters to draw a wide-ranging audience during a time traditionally filled with blockbuster releases that cater to all demographics.
The last few years have shown that holiday box office success has been an uphill battle in a post-pandemic context. Within this landscape, the visual dynamics of “Moana 2,” coupled with the allure of “Wicked” and the intense drama of “Gladiator II,” are expected to create a compelling draw for families and cinephiles alike. The sheer volume and variety of these releases could usher in a renaissance for Thanksgiving box office performance.
It’s noteworthy to highlight the pre-pandemic trends, where Thanksgiving weekend consistently recorded impressive sales. The peak came in 2018 with a staggering $315 million, largely driven by heavyweights like “Ralph Breaks the Internet” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald.” This was a far cry from the last few years, with Thanksgiving revenues remaining below the $200 million threshold since 2019, as reported by Comscore. Paul Dergarabedian, a senior media analyst, emphasizes the significance of Thanksgiving for the overall assessment of annual box office health. “This holiday season sets the tone,” he notes, linking it directly to the industry’s larger financial success.
Amidst this nostalgic backdrop, the anticipation for “Moana 2” becomes even more pronounced. Disney’s ability to reclaim its position within the animated feature realm has been somewhat marred by mediocre box office performances in recent years. The original “Moana” debuted during Thanksgiving in 2016, raking in over $82 million. In contrast, the company has struggled since then with titles such as “Strange World” and “Wish” that failed to connect with audiences. The forthcoming sequel aims to reverse this downward trend and, if successful, could solidify Disney’s renewed dominance in animated holiday releases.
With the arrival of “Moana 2,” optimism is high, not just for Disney but for the industry as a whole. The recent success of “Inside Out 2,” which opened to a remarkable $154.2 million domestically earlier this year, serves as a testament to audiences re-embracing animated films. The new “Moana” is strategically positioned to harness this momentum, as it follows the original’s climb in the streaming landscape, cementing its foothold among modern-day classics for families.
As we approach the Thanksgiving weekend, the industry holds its breath, hopeful that this year’s lineup will not only rekindle the robust holiday spirit of cinema but also pave the way for a thriving end to the year in box office revenues. Disney’s ambitions, emboldened by the successful surge of family-friendly films, signal a potential new lease of life for theatrical releases, setting the stage for a vibrant cinematic experience that resonates across all ages. As families gather to celebrate, the prospects of sharing memorable stories on the big screen could very well define the holiday season in 2023 and beyond.