In a noteworthy development, signed contracts for purchasing existing homes saw an unexpected surge of 7.4% in September compared to August, as reported by the National Association of Realtors. This figure outpaced analysts’ predictions, who had anticipated a modest increase of just 1%. The spike in pending sales marks the highest level seen since March, and it also represents a 2.6% increase compared to the same month last year. These pending sales are compelling indicators, as they reflect actual agreements made during the month, showcasing current buyer demand amid fluctuating mortgage rates.
The relationship between mortgage rates and homebuying activity is evident in recent trends. Throughout August, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage saw a decline, reaching a low of 6.11% on September 11, as reported by Mortgage News Daily. This decrease stimulated buyer interest and activity, driving up pending sales. However, with mortgage rates having risen again to just above 7% by October, concerns about affordability have resurfaced for many potential buyers. This volatility illustrates how sensitive today’s buyers are to shifts in interest rates, impacting their purchasing decisions significantly.
Analyzing the data regionally, there were significant shifts in pending sales across different parts of the country. The Northeast and the West demonstrated year-over-year increases in pending sales, while the Midwest and South remained relatively flat. Notably, the greatest gains were observed in the West, where housing prices are at their peak. Buyers here benefitted the most from even minimal reductions in mortgage rates, highlighting the regional disparities within the housing market.
Despite the recent increases in pending sales, there are apprehensions about the sustainability of this activity in light of rising mortgage rates. As noted by Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, further increases in job growth, housing inventory, and stabilization of mortgage rates could potentially drive more buyers into the market. However, financial analysts remain cautious. Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic, expressed skepticism about the longevity of the uptick in pending sales, suggesting that with rates climbing back to around 7%, the increase could be a temporary blip rather than a sustained trend.
Interestingly, despite the historical lows in mortgage demand, there was still a 10% increase in homebuyer mortgage applications compared to the same week last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. This indicates that while the market is experiencing a rise in activity, the overall demand continues to linger at lower levels than seen in previous years. While home sales have picked up slightly, the question of whether they can surpass 2023 levels remains open and largely dependent on external economic factors.
While the surge in pending home sales reflects some optimism in the market, ongoing fluctuations in mortgage rates and economic conditions pose significant challenges ahead.